In 2025, the global economy stayed relatively resilient amid increasing uncertainties. The year was largely shaped by trade wars; tariff rates imposed by the US approached their highest levels in nearly a century, significantly impacting global growth dynamics and trade. While global growth remained moderate, divergence among countries became more pronounced.

In the United States, investments in artificial intelligence and the wealth effect supported domestic demand, contributing to growth in the US outperforming that of other advanced economies. In the European Union, the outlook for growth remained subdued due to tariff uncertainties, persistent productivity challenges, and pricing pressures in exports. In China, growth was constrained by weak domestic demand, while rising protectionist tendencies weighed on the overall outlook.

Global growth continues to remain below historical averages. The global economy, which grew by 3.3% in 2025, is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Driven by expectations of higher tariffs and front-loaded activity, global trade volume increased by 4.1% in 2025; more moderate growth is projected in 2026 and 2027, at 2.6% and 3.1% respectively, as economies adjust to new policy frameworks.

Mounting geopolitical tensions and uncertainties around policy elevated global risk perception, meanwhile accelerating a rebalancing process in which countries are seeking new trade agreements and alternative supply routes.

In Türkiye, the economic program, implemented since the second half of 2023, was pursued with determination, focusing on fiscal discipline along with price and financial stability. Within this framework, the Medium-Term Program (MTP) aims to maintain the disinflation process; strengthen balanced, inclusive, and sustainable growth; ensure a permanent improvement in the current account balance; and expedite structural transformation steps that enhance productivity and competitiveness.

As a result of the implemented program, the rebalancing process in growth, which began in the second half of 2023, continued into 2025, with the Turkish economy growing by 3.7% in the first three quarters of 2025. According to the MTP (2026–2028), growth is expected to gradually increase, reaching 3.8% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027.

In line with the MTP’s primary objective of sustainable price stability, the measures taken led to a decline in annual inflation to 30.89% as of December 2025, representing a 13.5 percentage point decrease compared to the previous year.

Monetary, fiscal, and income policies are being implemented in a coordinated manner in order to achieve program targets by ensuring lasting price stability. To build on the gains achieved, structural reforms are being introduced alongside a growth strategy supported by gains in productivity and by investments in productive areas.

In a global environment where tariff rates have reached record levels and gold prices have remained strong, the resilience of exports and rising tourism revenues are expected to contribute to a decline in the current account deficit-to-GDP ratio, from 3.6% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2025, in line with MTP projections.

As the program strengthened macro-financial stability, the CBRT’s reserves reached record-high levels, the share of TL deposits in total deposits rose, and the subsequent positive outlook led to a sharp drop in the country risk premium.

Fiscal discipline has been one of the cornerstones of Türkiye’s economic gains. In 2024, the Public Savings and Efficiency Package was implemented, accompanied by measures to improve fairness and effectiveness in taxation and to combat the informal economy. Consequently, the central government budget deficit-to-GDP ratio is anticipated to be 2.9% in 2025, significantly below the MTP forecast.

In 2025, a year in which we achieved new records, our exports of goods and services exceeded the USD 390 billion target. As we enter 2026, despite the uncertainty arising from global protectionist trade policies and emerging trends in trade, our target of surpassing USD 410 billion in goods and services exports remains intact.

As Türk Eximbank, the official export support institution of our country, we made notable progress in 2025 in expanding the inclusiveness of our services and offering diversified solutions to a broader exporter base. We provided exporters with additional cost-efficient financing opportunities through our collateral structures. While enhancing the quality of our insurance services in line with best practices, we also began to intensify our sales channels. Additionally, we made progress in introducing financing and insurance products in the field of participation (interest-free) banking.

As of the end of 2025, we reached the highest volume in the Bank’s history, with our total annual support—comprising loans and insurance—soaring to USD 54.2 billion.

In the period ahead, while continuing to enhance all our services with our innovative perspective and exporter-focused approach, we aim to increase the share of high-tech and value-added exports, as well as green transformation-focused support and long-term investment loans.

We will continue to work together to make the export ecosystem stronger and more competitive.

Sincerely,

Osman ÇELİK

Chairman